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Publications
Public Paper Series
The Rise of the Machines:
How computers have changed work
The so-called "Rise of the Machines" has fundamen-
tally transformed the organization of work during
the last four decades. While enthusiasts are capti-
vated by the new technologies, many worry that
these machines will eventually lead to mass unem-
ployment, as robots and computers can substitute
for human labor.
This Public Paper shows that these concerns are
likely to be exaggerated. Despite rapid technological
progress and automation, unemployment has not
dramatically expanded over time. Instead, employ-
ment shifted from the most highly automated sectors
to other sectors that experienced less technological
progress, as well as emerging sectors that were cre-
ated by new technology.
While computers have little impact on overall
employment, however, they contribute to rising
inequality. Machines have overtaken humans in their
capability to execute well-defined routine tasks pre-
cisely, and many of the production and clerical jobs
that specialize in these tasks have been irreversibly
lost. As a result, the employment structure of labor
markets in developed countries has become increas-
ingly polarized as employment concentrates in a set
of highly paid and a set of lowly paid occupations,
both of which are difficult to automate.
As computerization changes the composition of
human labor rather than decreasing its overall
amount, policymakers should not be primarily con-
cerned about mass unemployment. Instead, the more
immanent policy challenges caused by computeriza-
tion result from changing skill demands in the labor
market and rising economic inequality among
workers.
"Humans retain an advantage over
machines when it comes to problem
solving, creativity, and interaction
with other humans."
David Dorn is the author of the fourth Public Paper "The Rise of the
Machines: How computers have changed work"